Possible scenario
Terms Face Renegotiation
25% Chance
Cost inflation, tariff politics, local permitting details, or U.S. content requirements force the parties to reopen parts of the commercial package. The deal remains alive, but investors begin to discount the timing and profitability of the first project.
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
- NEXT-1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.