Possible scenario
Accusations Stick
32% Chance
The allegations become a durable liability for Peltola, especially if more witnesses, texts, or recordings emerge. Nick Begich and the NRCC use the controversy to undermine Peltola’s brand as a consensus Alaska figure.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.