Possible scenario
Insurgency Absorbs Loss
30% Chance
Hamas has repeatedly replaced killed leaders and commanders since 2024, and the organization may absorb this loss without a decisive collapse. The finance function shifts to surviving couriers, informal hawala channels and Iran-linked facilitators outside Gaza.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Tickers
- ESLT+0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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