Delay Enacted Unchanged

The European Parliament and Council accept the Commission's one-year delay with limited amendments, making the new oil and gas import obligations effective in 2027. This is the most likely outcome because record fuel costs, U.S. pressure, and prior Commission flexibility have already shifted the policy balance toward energy-security concerns.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.