Possible scenario
Alme Narrow Plurality
24% Chance
The race tightens again, but Alme survives because Bodnar and Bankhead divide the non-Republican electorate. Bullock's endorsement helps Bodnar, yet not enough Democratic voters abandon Bankhead to overcome the Republican baseline.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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