Possible scenario
Alme Clear Victory
46% Chance
Kurt Alme's restored double-digit polling lead proves durable, helped by Republican consolidation after Steve Daines' exit and continued Democratic division. Ryan Bodnar remains the main alternative, but he cannot fully absorb Bankhead voters before Election Day.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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