Possible scenario
Price War Intensifies
25% Chance
DeepSeek’s OpenRouter lead forces U.S. frontier labs to defend developer mindshare through lower API prices, lighter models, and aggressive bundling. The likely outcome is faster AI adoption but weaker near-term pricing power across model providers.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.2%
- Technology +0.2%
Tickers
- GOOG+0.6%
- NVDA-0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.