Possible scenario
DeepSeek Lead Widens
40% Chance
DeepSeek turns its token-volume lead into a durable developer flywheel as low prices, open-weight availability, and improved Huawei-based serving capacity reinforce adoption. OpenRouter benefits from higher aggregate routing volume, while OpenAI, Anthropic, and other premium API providers face renewed price pressure.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Business Services +0.2%
Tickers
- NVDA-2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.