Possible scenario
Crisis Deepens Inland
30% Chance
Food shortages worsen across government-held Yemen as prices rise, aid remains underfunded, and road insecurity blocks distribution. The crisis becomes more visible diplomatically but has limited immediate global market impact unless it spills into the Red Sea shipping lane.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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