Possible scenario
TPLF Insurgency Persists
30% Chance
TPLF units avoid decisive battles and shift toward guerrilla operations in western and central Tigray. The interim government holds offices in Mekelle, but its authority remains limited outside areas protected by the ENDF.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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