Possible scenario
Federal Control Holds
45% Chance
The Ethiopian National Defense Force keeps Mekelle and major towns under federal control while the interim Tigray administration restores basic services. This is the most likely path because the TPLF offensive has already been reversed and Addis Ababa has moved quickly to install a governing structure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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