Possible scenario
Protests Disrupt Operations
23% Chance
Public anger over a shooting involving a child present produces demonstrations at ICE offices, courthouses, and mayoral events. The most likely version remains localized, but a harsher police response could widen the confrontation between City Hall, NYPD, ICE, and protesters.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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