Possible scenario
Hawkish Inflation Defense
25% Chance
The BOJ’s new focus on maintaining a stable 2% target is interpreted as a willingness to lean against renewed price pressure. Markets bring forward expectations for additional hikes and a higher neutral-rate estimate in Japan.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.0%
- Technology -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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