Possible scenario
Credibility Soft Landing
20% Chance
The framework change strengthens confidence that Japan has exited deflation without triggering an aggressive tightening cycle. Inflation expectations stay anchored, domestic demand holds up and investors rotate toward Japanese financials and consumer names.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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