Possible scenario
Western Naval Response
30% Chance
The United States, United Kingdom, and regional partners expand naval operations to protect commercial traffic and clear mines. This scenario is plausible because repeated tanker hits create pressure for a more visible deterrent response, but Washington still tries to avoid a full war with Iran.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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