Possible scenario
Negotiated Partial Reopening
20% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and China press Iran to allow limited commercial traffic through the strait to prevent a global energy shock. Tehran could accept a temporary arrangement while preserving political leverage, especially if the disruption begins hurting its own oil exports and relations with Asian buyers.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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