Possible scenario
Calibrated Maritime Pressure
35% Chance
Iran continues controlled attacks and harassment inside the Strait of Hormuz while avoiding mass casualties or direct strikes on U.S. assets. Tehran uses mines, drones, and naval exclusion zones to sustain leverage after ending nuclear talks, keeping insurance costs and oil-risk premia elevated.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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