Possible scenario
Succession Planning Accelerates
25% Chance
Kim remains alive, but the proof-of-life episode pushes Pyongyang to display more continuity planning. His daughter Kim Ju Ae, sister Kim Yo Jong, and senior military officials appear more prominently to signal regime durability.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.