Possible scenario
Reappearance Stabilizes Rumors
45% Chance
North Korean state media provides enough fresh imagery or video to convince outside governments that Kim Jong Un remains in control. Health questions persist because of his reported weight and past absences, but immediate succession risk recedes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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