Possible scenario
Policy Cushion Arrives
18% Chance
New Delhi and the RBI move to contain market stress through communication, currency management or targeted relief on inflation-sensitive items. These measures do not reverse the rate hike, but they reduce near-term fears of a deeper equity drawdown.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.5%
- Industrials -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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