Possible scenario
Market Stabilizes
30% Chance
Indian equities find support from bargain hunting and official communication that frames the rate hike as a pre-emptive inflation move rather than the start of a much harsher cycle. The rupee remains weak, but the absence of disorderly selling allows risk appetite to recover modestly.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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