Possible scenario
U.S.-Saudi Containment
38% Chance
Trump uses the call with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to press for restraint while keeping public support for Saudi air defense. Riyadh continues intercepts and limited counterstrikes, but Washington and Oman reopen a channel to the Houthis to prevent attacks on Riyadh from becoming a broader Gulf crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.8%
- Energy -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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