Possible scenario
Limited Saudi Escalation
30% Chance
Saudi Arabia rejects Houthi terms and conducts another round of strikes while Washington offers intelligence and air-defense coordination. The conflict remains mostly inside the Saudi-Yemen theater, keeping market impacts noticeable but short of a regional shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.