Possible scenario
Energy Spillover Risk
22% Chance
The Houthis expand pressure beyond Riyadh by threatening Red Sea shipping or Saudi energy infrastructure. Even without a sustained supply outage, traders quickly add a geopolitical premium to crude and mark down travel, consumer, and shipping-exposed equities.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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