Possible scenario
Managed Pact Integration
45% Chance
Iran's reversal becomes a controlled diplomatic process rather than an immediate military merger. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan and Iran prioritize deconfliction, intelligence channels and a joint investigation into the attacks on Makkah and Saudi sites.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.5%
- Energy -1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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