Possible scenario
Fragile Rivalry Persists
25% Chance
Iran's accession does not end mistrust among the security services and regional proxies. The pact survives diplomatically, but implementation is slow and the chance of localized incidents remains elevated.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.3%
- Energy +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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