Possible scenario
External Pushback Intensifies
15% Chance
The United States, Israel and some Gulf partners question whether Iran's entry legitimizes Tehran without verifiable security commitments. Sanctions, intelligence-sharing and missile-defense coordination become the main constraints on implementation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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