Possible scenario
Oman Channel Revives
35% Chance
The most likely near-term path is that Oman keeps indirect contacts alive despite the Houthis rejecting direct Saudi talks. Riyadh and Muscat have incentives to prevent repeated airport attacks from expanding into a broader Saudi-Houthi war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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