Possible scenario
Symbolic Senate Foothold
45% Chance
The National Rally's new Senate group gives Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella a more institutional platform but does not materially change Senate arithmetic. Gérard Larcher's mainstream right and centrist blocs retain control over the chamber's agenda, committee posts and budget leverage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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