Possible scenario
Cordon Sanitaire Holds
20% Chance
Centrist senators, Socialists, Greens and most of Les Républicains maintain the institutional barrier against the RN. The party has a formal group but remains isolated in the Senate's internal power structure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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