Possible scenario
Cross-Border Escalation
23% Chance
The claimed shootdown hardens Houthi messaging and prompts retaliatory missile or drone attempts against Saudi territory. This scenario becomes market-relevant if the conflict starts to touch airports, energy facilities, or Red Sea/Gulf logistics rather than remaining inside Yemen.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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