Possible scenario
Confirmed Limited Retaliation
38% Chance
Saudi Arabia or third-party imagery confirms that a Eurofighter Typhoon was shot down over Saada, making the incident more credible than prior Houthi claims. Riyadh responds with intensified but geographically limited airstrikes while avoiding attacks that would threaten oil infrastructure or Red Sea shipping.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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