Possible scenario
Houthi Insurgency Persists
30% Chance
The Houthi retreat proves tactical rather than decisive. The group avoids conventional battle near the chokepoint but uses missiles, drones, mines, and small cells to keep shipping risk elevated.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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