Possible scenario
Government Consolidates Strait
45% Chance
Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces use the Houthi retreat to consolidate control around Bab el-Mandeb and Al-Mokha. The Houthis remain capable of harassment inland, but the immediate threat to the chokepoint declines.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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