Possible scenario
Permit Regime Normalizes
45% Chance
Iran turns the routing mandate into a bureaucratic approval system rather than an immediate blockade of subsea infrastructure. Gulf governments and cable sponsors accept the process because they have already conceded Iran’s operational control over Hormuz and want digital infrastructure projects to continue.
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -0.4%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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