Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pushback
20% Chance
The United States, European Union, and several Asian governments challenge Iran’s authority over digital infrastructure undersea routes. The dispute remains diplomatic and legal rather than kinetic, but it raises the cost of Gulf cable projects and reinforces political-risk premiums.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -0.7%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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