Possible scenario
Managed Implementation
40% Chance
The most likely path is that Spain keeps the eviction ban in force but adds compensation, mediation and procedural filters to prevent a collapse in rental-market confidence. The PSOE-Sumar government has already extended rent protections through 2028, so a negotiated administrative rollout is more likely than an immediate reversal.
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.1%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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