Possible scenario
Iran Link Intensifies
20% Chance
Saudi and U.S. officials publicly emphasize Iranian support for Houthi missile and drone capabilities. The episode becomes part of a broader Gulf security confrontation, though all sides still try to avoid a direct Saudi-Iranian conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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