Possible scenario
PLA Access Normalizes
45% Chance
China and Cambodia treat the aircraft presence at Ream Naval Base as a rotational training and logistics arrangement rather than a declared permanent base. Regional governments object diplomatically, but no immediate confrontation follows because Phnom Penh continues to deny exclusive Chinese control.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Tickers
- +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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