Possible scenario
Allied Counterbalancing
25% Chance
Washington, Manila, Hanoi, Canberra, and Tokyo respond by increasing surveillance, patrols, and defense coordination around the South China Sea. The response is measured but reinforces a regional arms and basing competition.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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