Possible scenario
U.S. Military Escalation
25% Chance
Washington judges the attacks on shipping as unacceptable and directly targets Iranian anti-ship missile, drone or radar sites. Tehran retaliates in a controlled way at first, but the risk of a wider Gulf conflict rises sharply over the next trading sessions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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