Possible scenario
Prolonged Partial Closure
30% Chance
The strait remains formally blocked or too dangerous for normal commercial operations, but not every vessel stops moving. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Asian importers scramble for reroutes, strategic stocks and naval protection while markets price a serious but still bounded oil shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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