Possible scenario
Naval Containment Holds
35% Chance
The most likely near-term path is a rapid expansion of U.S., U.K., French and Gulf naval escorts without an immediate attempt to destroy Iranian coastal batteries. Iran and allied units continue harassment, but commercial traffic resumes under convoy because Gulf producers and Asian buyers press for partial reopening.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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