Possible scenario
Controlled Diplomacy
40% Chance
The call produces a managed de-escalation in which Moscow shares enough clinical and epidemiological data to reduce immediate fears of a spreading outbreak. This is the most likely path because both governments have incentives to avoid panic while preserving diplomatic leverage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Healthcare -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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