Possible scenario
Negotiated Consular Compromise
45% Chance
London and Jerusalem step back from a full diplomatic break after back-channel talks involving the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office and Israel's Foreign Ministry. The most likely path is a procedural compromise over consular accreditation while both governments preserve their broader policy positions on settlements and Palestinian statehood.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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