Possible scenario
Limited Diplomatic Expulsions
30% Chance
The UK follows through on part of its threat, expelling a smaller number of Israeli diplomats rather than all 27. Israel responds proportionately, but both governments keep embassies open and avoid severing formal relations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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