Possible scenario
Geopolitical Split Deepens
22% Chance
AI governance becomes another arena of geopolitical competition, with the U.S. and allies backing one set of standards while China and Russia resist language they view as constraining sovereignty or military development. This would raise policy uncertainty for global AI firms, though the immediate market effect would still be moderate.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
- Telecommunications -0.3%
Tickers
- NVDA-1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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