Possible scenario
Gap Exploited
20% Chance
Moscow attempts to exploit uncertainty around allied warning systems with another large drone or missile strike on Kyiv's power grid. The episode increases short-term geopolitical risk but remains below the threshold of a NATO-Russia crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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