Maintenance Backlog Eases

Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark and the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine command agree on a surge repair plan that releases a large share of the grounded aircraft. This is the most likely outcome because the problem is logistical and contractual rather than a lack of aircraft, and allies have strong incentives to protect the political credibility of the F-16 program.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.