Possible scenario
South Sudan Pulled In
25% Chance
The attack occurs in a disputed region claimed by both Sudan and South Sudan, making escalation involving President Salva Kiir's government a credible risk. South Sudan's fragile internal politics and recent warnings of renewed civil war increase the chance that Abyei becomes a rallying point for armed factions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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